Checking In With Congress: Fall 2023 Preview

Tax Notes Capitol Hill reporters Cady Stanton and Doug Sword preview what to anticipate from Congress in tax coverage this fall, from a possible end-of-year tax package deal to IRS funding.

This transcript has been edited for size and readability.

David D. Stewart: Welcome to the podcast. I am David Stewart, editor in chief of Tax Notes As we speak Worldwide. This week: selections, selections.

As summer time yields to fall, the August congressional recess involves an finish, resulting in a busy legislative season. The Senate and Home are due again within the subsequent few weeks, and the legislative physique has quite a bit to cowl. From an important funds invoice to funding for the IRS, there is a sharp divide between Republican and Democratic expectations.

So what tax coverage and laws can we anticipate from Congress this fall? Right here to speak extra about this are Tax Notes Capitol Hill reporters Cady Stanton and Doug Sword. Cady, Doug, welcome again to the podcast.

Cady Stanton: Thanks for having us.

Doug Sword: Hey, Dave.

David D. Stewart: Why do not we begin off with a number of the fundamentals right here. What’s the funds course of that we’re trying ahead to, and why is the timing so tough to foretell this 12 months?

Doug Sword: Initially, Dave, Congress has a September drawback. For 27 years in a row it has didn’t go its 12 spending payments by the September 30 deadline, and I really feel assured that streak goes to remain alive this 12 months. We will go to a twenty eighth 12 months, and there is a few causes for that.

The Home managed to go simply one among its 12 spending payments, after which it took off for six weeks. The Home is coming again September 12 with 12 legislative days left earlier than the top of the fiscal 12 months, and there is not any means they will end their payments by then.

And even when they did, the Senate has handed none of its payments and there is a $115 billion gulf between what the 2 chambers wish to spend in fiscal 2024, although there was a funds settlement and the debt deal, however that is been ignored.

So the primary factor to be resolved in September will most likely be whether or not they can go a CR. That is a seamless decision that continues funding previous the top of fiscal 2023, which ends September 30. And if they do not go a CR, you go right into a partial authorities shutdown, not on October 1 since that is a Sunday this 12 months, however they’d begin sending federal employees dwelling by midday on October 2.

The query is, can Home Speaker Kevin McCarthy [R-Calif.] get a CR handed? Will the Freedom Caucus assist him, although the Freedom Caucus has been very cantankerous on all funds issues? He could have to show to Democrats for votes to get a CR via, and complicating that’s Democrats really feel they at all times need shutdowns.

So even when there’s a shutdown now, I imply the longest one has been 35 days, and that is the start sport, not the top sport, which notably for us, since that is when the tax deal happens, that is the half that we’ll be centered on.

David D. Stewart: So we’re anticipating some method of motion, whether or not it is a no motion shutdown or some kind of kicking the can down the street. When can we anticipate this to be resolved, and can there be a tax side to the ultimate invoice?

Doug Sword: Yeah, I imply, the primary query I believe to unpack there may be whether or not or not there will be an omnibus invoice. Sometimes, there’s an omnibus invoice.

For fiscal 2023, all 12 spending payments had been wrapped collectively and handed simply earlier than Christmas with 20 different legal guidelines thrown on prime and a bunch of tax provisions, together with on conservation easements and retirement financial savings thrown in for good measure.

A 12 months earlier than there was an incredible large omnibus, however McCarthy and Home Majority Chief Steve Scalise [R-La.] and different Home Republican leaders have insisted that there will probably be no omnibus this 12 months, that they will do issues the old style means and go payments one by one. And like I stated, they’ve handed one invoice. However a lot of the Congress watchers I discuss to suppose there most likely will probably be an omnibus or no less than some kind of minibus with six payments on it, one thing like that.

No matter whether or not there’s an omnibus, if there is a tax deal completed, then anyone’s going to discover a car as a result of the issue in tax talks hasn’t been the shortage of a car. It has been — a deal has alluded members for greater than a 12 months now.

However as for the query of when will the funds course of be completed, the debt ceiling deal that turned regulation in June gave some incentives, notably for Republicans, to get the funds completed earlier than the top of the 12 months as a result of if any a part of the funds is CR’ed into subsequent 12 months, then the protection spending quantity will get marked down by $36 billion and the nondefense determine truly will get marked up.

Now, it is not everlasting. So long as there is a deal by April 30 — and sure, that is a scary date — so long as there is a deal by April 30, the $36 billion goes again. But when they do not get a deal by April 30, there’s a actual $36 billion sequestered out of the protection funds. That is the true hammer in all this, so this may very well be a really lengthy slog.

David D. Stewart: Now Cady, what would we anticipate by way of tax in an final decision to this? I do know that there is been dialogue of points that associated to baby tax credit score and Tax Cuts and Jobs Act extenders. So what are you trying to see?

Cady Stanton: We clearly do not have a full sense of what is going to be in that closing package deal but, however we do have this one massive phase of tax laws that was coming from the Methods and Means Committee from Home Republicans.

It is a package deal of three payments that handed via the committee a couple of weeks in the past. That package deal has been by and huge panned by Home and Senate Democrats and actually simply serves as a place to begin for negotiations going into the autumn, however what’s in that set of payments nonetheless provides us a way of what we would anticipate by the top of the 12 months.

In order that package deal consists of, in a serious means, fixing three expired enterprise tax provisions from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. In order that’s full analysis and growth expensing, internet curiosity expensing, and bonus depreciation. Since these provisions have already sunsetted and R&D particularly has acquired bipartisan assist, they’re the most definitely to make it into an end-of-year car and have been the primary focus thus far.

However on the opposite aspect of the aisle, Democrats in each the Home and the Senate have made it clear that they need some form of assist for working households in any laws fixing these three expired provisions, primarily within the type of an enlargement of the kid tax credit score [CTC] as you talked about.

So clearly the American Rescue Plan expanded the CTC as much as $3,600 for younger youngsters and $3,000 for teenagers 6 and over. And that cash was additionally accessible in month-to-month installments and absolutely accessible to these with little to no revenue, which is a change from what it’s now, which is $2,000 for kids underneath 17.

Republicans have pointed to the TCJA, which expanded the CTC from $1,000 to $2,000, as proof of their assist for households with youngsters and of their assist for the CTC typically. Methods and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith [R-Mo.] has additionally voiced he is open to enhancement of the CTC for a tax package deal, however provided that that is alongside adjustments to work necessities for the credit score. And members of the Home Downside Solvers Caucus have additionally created a working group on creating compromise across the CTC.

So with these two elements collectively, an answer does appear doable, and progress is being made towards a center floor, however the smoke hasn’t actually cleared but on what a closing association would possibly appear to be.

One thing else to concentrate to is what pay-fors may very well be determined upon to cowl the price of fixing these three large enterprise tax provisions alongside different tax cuts.

Democrats are unlikely to be open to reducing the clear power tax incentives created within the Inflation Discount Act. That was the strategy that Home Republicans used as a pay-for of their preliminary tax package deal.

They lower a few of these incentives. So it will be actually fascinating to see what different artistic concepts would possibly come out to cowl prices general. The controversy over the debt ceiling this Congress has actually put a brand new strain in that space.

David D. Stewart: Now, are there another points on the market looming which may get bundled into this omnibus or minibus?

Doug Sword: Properly, the primary present is over the kid tax credit score and the three TCJA provisions that Cady was speaking about. There are a handful of different gadgets which are very bipartisan that may very well be tacked onto any deal or possibly might float by themselves if there is not any settlement on these large 4 tax provisions.

First would most likely be some kind of resolution to the 1099-Okay drawback. The American Rescue Plan created a requirement for platforms like Lyft and Uber to ship 1099-Ks to the IRS and to their contractors for anyone who makes greater than $600 a 12 months from them. And that was supposed to enter impact this 12 months, however the IRS, regardless of having no authorized authority in anyway to take action, put that off for a 12 months, and most of the people I discuss to do not suppose they will get away with doing {that a} second time. So there’ll most likely be some push to extend that $600 threshold.

And likewise the Treasury wants to repair a pair issues with the retirement invoice that was tacked into the final 12 months’s omnibus as a result of there’s some errors in it. And the 4 corners of the taxwriting committees, the Senate Finance and Home Methods and Means committee, the chairs and rating members, are all in settlement that if Treasury cannot repair this administratively they will work on Congress making these corrections in a invoice.

After which lastly, I believe there’s numerous assist for some kind of reform enlargement of the low-income housing tax credit score.

David D. Stewart: Now, one of many points that is been on the market ever for the reason that TCJA has been the limitation on the state and native tax deduction. Is there any extra dialogue about that?

Cady Stanton: Completely. So like we stated, Methods and Means superior that trio of tax payments on this large marathon markup again on June 13, however these payments have but to see a full ground vote within the Home.

That may very well be for lots of various causes, together with, like Doug talked about, divisions inside the Republican Celebration and fights between the Home Freedom Caucus and Speaker McCarthy, however the largest hurdle to a ground vote for these payments has been Home Republicans within the SALT Caucus.

As you talked about, they’re advocating for a elevate within the cap on the state and native revenue tax deduction. Members from high-tax states, together with New Jersey, New York and California, have met with Smith and advised him they wish to see a raise on that cap, which is presently set at $10,000, from the TCJA earlier than they present their assist for the package deal.

Since Democrats are anticipated to wholly oppose the package deal in that ground vote and Speaker McCarthy can solely afford to lose 5 votes in his majority, the calls for have led progress on the package deal to only screech to a halt proper now.

Caucus members have advised each Doug and myself that negotiations on together with some change to that cap within the package deal are ongoing, as of going into recess. Proposals embrace elevating the cap to $20,000 for married {couples} and elevating the cap to $100,000 and even simply eliminating the cap collectively.

That was additionally an issue for former Home Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who had a good narrower majority in 2021. She was pressured to postpone votes on Democrats’ big Construct Again Higher tax package deal due to revolts by moderates and by the SALT Caucus’s Democratic members. So this is not the primary time that SALT has served as a hurdle to advancing a tax package deal.

David D. Stewart: Now, one main concern that goes simply past the U.S. is the OECD’s work on the two-pillar resolution for updating the taxation of multinationals. What are we listening to from Congress about these proposals?

Cady Stanton: Home Republicans and GOP Methods and Means members particularly have been fairly outspoken in taking concern with the Biden administration’s negotiations as a part of the OECD’s international tax deal.

Specifically, they’ve truly launched two items of laws pushing again on that international tax deal. One would require Treasury to determine extraterritorial and discriminatory taxes that different international locations levy on U.S. firms and urge these international locations to repeal the measures or face a reciprocal or principally retaliatory tax.

The laws would not explicitly specify the form of tax that may go underneath that scope, however the launch does spotlight the UTPR — undertaxed income rule, a part of the pillar 2 of OECD’s international tax deal — for instance. Additionally they launched laws referred to as the Unfair Tax Prevention Act, which might leverage the U.S.’s base erosion and antiabuse tax to impose a reciprocal tax on international locations that implement the UTPR.

Chairman Smith and others have additionally even made plans to journey to Europe to share their complaints instantly with OECD leaders. That would happen someday this recess, and so they had deliberate to take action earlier within the 12 months, however debt restrict negotiations delayed that journey.

Exterior of Methods and Means, the Home Appropriations Committee, as Doug reported, voted to zero out the U.S. funding of the OECD in its state international operations and associated program spending invoice in July, a transfer that the highest committee Democrat Rosa DeLauro [D-Conn.] referred to as a return to isolationism.

However other than Home Republicans, there have additionally been some criticisms thrown at U.S. participation within the OECD’s international tax deal from Democrats. They have been comparatively lukewarm of their assist for a few of these areas, particularly across the deal’s therapy of the U.S.’s nonrefundable tax credit, together with the home analysis credit score.

Members of each events have additionally advised Treasury officers and the White Home that they are fairly upset with a scarcity of session with Congress on the negotiations for the tax deal, as Congress in the end has to approve the worldwide settlement.

David D. Stewart: Now one other main concern out there may be the IRS funding. The IRS acquired a serious bump in funding underneath the Inflation Discount Act, however that does not appear notably widespread with Republicans in Congress. So the place is that?

Doug Sword: Sure, it’s extremely, very, very unpopular with Republicans. Home Republicans have set their sights on two components of the IRS funds, and the IRS funds is definitely very central to the gulf between the Home and the Senate budgets which are forming, so it may be fascinating how that performs out.

Home appropriators superior the invoice to chop the IRS’s annual discretionary funds by 9 %. As Dave talked about, the IRS individually acquired $79 billion within the Inflation Discount Act. They get that over 10 years — that is known as necessary funding. So the Home additionally has focused that pot of cash that they’ve $67 billion in cuts unfold all through their funds on the IRS necessary {dollars}, just about wiping these out.

Now over within the Senate, the pinnacle of the subcommittee that oversees the IRS funds argues that their invoice included a flatline of the IRS’s funds, the annual funds. It was a really bipartisan invoice. It was unanimously superior by the Senate Appropriations Committee, and that the Home invoice is tremendously partisan, the 9 % lower. So he says the bipartisan half will win.

However I’d level out Republicans have been surprisingly adept at slashing away at each the IRS discretionary and necessary funds. They acquired a 2 % lower in IRS fiscal 2023 funds final December. And within the debt restrict deal, Joe Biden agreed to take $21.4 billion out of the Inflation Discount Act cash. So it may be fascinating to see how that performs out.

David D. Stewart: We have not too long ago seen some motion on tax treaties within the U.S. Senate. One of many main ones on the market proper now’s the tax settlement with Taiwan. Cady, might you give us an replace on that?

Cady Stanton: Completely. You have picked a really difficult matter in Congress, however when the Senate returns from recess in September, talks round a tax settlement with Taiwan are more likely to restart.

Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden [D-Ore.] and rating member Mike Crapo [R-Idaho] despatched an announcement simply earlier than summer time recess that the committee will maintain a markup of a tax settlement between the U.S. and Taiwan that was written by the heads of Senate Finance in addition to the heads of the Home Methods and Means Committee. However a couple of weeks previous to recess, the Senate International Relations Committee superior a separate piece of tax settlement laws with Taiwan.

So we have got two completely different makes an attempt at an settlement occurring on the identical time, and neither social gathering is being notably clear about coming to a compromise.

The ultimate model of the laws from these tax committees hasn’t been shared, however the draft achieved principally the identical targets because the Senate International Relations textual content. It eliminates double taxation and would implement measures to restrict the chance of tax evasion or avoidance.

Chairman [Robert] Menendez [D-N.J.], who’s the pinnacle of the Senate International Relations Committee, has argued his laws is broader than the tax committee’s laws. Menendez and Wyden have been tight-lipped concerning the progress of resolving this sort of jurisdictional dispute on the settlement, however Menendez is a member of the Senate Finance Committee, and because the chair of the Senate International Relations Committee is concerned on each side of this.

Each chairs have voiced their intention to maneuver ahead with their respective laws, so it will be one thing to concentrate to within the fall to see how that performs out.

David D. Stewart: Properly, there’s a lot to maintain observe of over the following coming months, however Cady and Doug, I am positive you may preserve us updated on all of it. Thanks for being right here.

Cady Stanton: Thanks for having us.

Doug Sword: Thanks, Dave.